Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong expresses confidence that Bitcoin has already established its latest cycle low, even as the cryptocurrency trades beneath the threshold that has historically signaled confirmed recoveries.
During September 10 interviews with Bloomberg and CNBC, Armstrong stated that he anticipates Bitcoin will trend upward over the following one to two years ahead of the next halving, while labeling a $400,000 price point by 2030 a “reasonable target.”
“I personally think we’ve seen the bottom of the Bitcoin price in this cycle,” Armstrong remarked, presenting the perspective as an individual viewpoint rather than an official corporate projection from Coinbase.
This prediction coincides with Bitcoin hovering near $77,000, representing a roughly 39% decline from its October 2025 peak of $126,198. Consequently, Armstrong is betting on a cyclical reversal prior to Bitcoin reclaiming either its former all-time high or the technical metric that has traditionally differentiated enduring recoveries from temporary bear-market bounces.
Bitcoin still has one historical hurdle to clear
The immediate obstacle lies just above $80,000, a zone where Bitcoin has repeatedly faced resistance and where its 50-week moving average has emerged as a critical benchmark.
Galaxy Research pegged that moving average at $81,473 on September 2, noting that a successful weekly close above that level would reinforce the case that Bitcoin’s bear market has concluded.
In four out of five past Bitcoin bear markets, the initial upward breakout past the 50-week average happened after the cycle trough had already been put in place. The singular exception was the abbreviated downturn that occurred between Bitcoin’s two peak prices in 2021.
This historical precedent largely aligns with Armstrong’s timeline: a bottoming phase can materialize prior to the market delivering definitive proof that a new cycle has commenced.
Bitcoin has already exhibited preliminary signs pointing toward this scenario.
Throughout August, the digital asset advanced 25.4%, moving from $62,899 to $78,852. The bulk of this progression happened during the week ending August 23, when Bitcoin surged 23.5% to record its largest weekly dollar-denominated gain ever. Meanwhile, US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds pulled in $3.4 billion throughout the month, marking their strongest monthly net inflows since July 2025.
Galaxy linked the surge to a resurgence in interest for the debasement trade, political developments in Washington, short liquidations, and momentum-driven purchases. Additionally, Bitcoin had dropped deep enough below its prior record to draw in buyers who perceived the cryptocurrency as undervalued compared to alternative risk assets trading near peak valuations.
Certain dynamics render this rebound somewhat ambiguous. Short covering can accelerate upward momentum without building lasting demand, while momentum traders are capable of withdrawing swiftly if Bitcoin fails to push higher.
Consequently, the weekly close relative to the 50-week average remains the focal point for the upcoming test. A decisive breakout would place Armstrong’s bottom prediction in alignment with a technical signal that has surfaced near the conclusion of most prior Bitcoin bear markets. Conversely, persistent rejection would keep the asset trapped below a barrier that has historically separated true recovery from mere consolidation.
The $400,000 target depends on a much bigger cycle
Armstrong’s long-range outlook presupposes that the current rebound will ultimately scale far beyond a simple return to Bitcoin’s previous peak.
Evaluated near $77,000, Bitcoin would need to multiply more than five times over to achieve $400,000. Such a milestone would also place the cryptocurrency more than three times higher than its October 2025 high-water mark.
Armstrong tied his optimistic outlook to the traditional four-year Bitcoin cycle alongside the approach of the next halving event, which is projected for around 2028. This programmed occurrence cuts the block reward distributed to miners, thereby restricting the velocity at which fresh Bitcoin enters the circulating supply.
His one-to-two-year projection positions the next recovery phase around that timeframe, though Bitcoin must navigate nearer-term resistance barriers before market participants can properly test the broader cyclical hypothesis.
The primary barrier resides in the low-$80,000 bracket. Galaxy’s moving-average assessment points to a weekly close above that territory as the most definitive technical validation of Armstrong’s assertion, while other analysts have similarly flagged resistance between $80,000 and $84,000 following the recent upward run.
Maintaining this upward trajectory may increasingly hinge on spot market demand. August ETF inflows assisted in absorbing available supply during the bounce, yet Bitcoin has since encountered difficulty pushing past $80,000 even as short-term momentum indicators have strengthened.
A triumphant weekly close past the 50-week average would bring Armstrong’s call for a market bottom into harmony with the trajectory observed following previous Bitcoin downturns. Alternatively, another rejection would trap the market inside the very same recovery channel it has inhabited since August, compelling investors to wait longer for confirmation that a fresh cycle has truly begun.
